New Christopher Nolan Imax Film Set for Summer 2020 Release

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

Warner Bros. has dated an untitled “Christopher Nolan Event Film” for July 17, 2020, at which time the film will be released on IMAX.

The slot replaces something previously called an “untitled WB Event Film” on the Warner Bros. slate. There are no details beyond that. The date also comes one week before the release of an untitled DC film from Warner Bros that is currently slated for July, 24, 2020.

Nolan’s last film, 2017’s “Dunkirk,” was also with Warner Bros. It won three Oscars, was nominated for Best Picture and grossed $526 million worldwide. Although a hefty amount, it was his fourth highest grossing film, behind “The Dark Knight,” “The Dark Knight Rises” and “Inception.”

Also Read: Christopher Nolan Is Trying to Make Sure His Movies Won’t Look Weird on TV

“Dunkirk” was also released in IMAX and in 70mm in one of the widest such releases for the wider film format, and Nolan has been one of the last directors clinging to film stock over digital. As a result, IMAX in its Q3 that year posted massive earnings on the back of “Dunkirk’s” success on the larger screens both domestically and abroad.

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Warner Bros Wins Rights to $300 Million RatPac-Dune Film Library

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

Warner Bros. on Wednesday exercised its matching rights to buy the film library of RatPac-Dune, a studio spokesperson confirmed to TheWrap.
The deal means Warner Bros. snaps up the library from media and entertainment industry asset management firm Vin…

Netherlands’ Cash Rebate of Up to 35% Lures Film and TV Production

Read on: Variety.

The Netherlands, well known for its progressive politics – not to mention legalized pot and prostitution – also offers a variety of filming locations, ranging from the historic canals and period architecture of Amsterdam, to sandy windswept beaches along the North Sea, to endless fields of colorful tulips during springtime. It all comes with a […]

‘Dunkirk,’ ‘Baby Driver’ Score Motion Picture Wins at LMGI Awards

Read on: Variety.

Unofficially, the awards season ended this evening when the Location Managers Guild International announced the winners of its 5th annual LMGI Awards. The motion picture honorees were “Dunkirk,” shot in Malo-les-Bains in France (pictured above), where the real wartime evacuation took place, and “Baby Driver,” shot at locations throughout Atlanta. In television series, awards went […]

‘Dunkirk,’ ‘Baby Driver,’ ‘Game of Thrones’ and ‘Ozark’ Win Location Managers Awards

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

The location managers responsible for the settings of the films “Dunkirk” and “Baby Driver” and the television shows “Game of Thrones” and “Ozark” won the top awards on Saturday night from the Location Managers Guild International, which presented its fifth annual awards at the Alex Theatre in Glendale.

Ben Piltz and Arnaud Kaiser won the Outstanding Locations in a Period Film award for the Christopher Nolan film “Dunkirk,” sections of which were filmed on the actual beach where the World War II evacuation took place. Doug Dresser and Kyle Hinshaw won in the Outstanding Locations in a Contemporary Film category for “Baby Driver,” which was set in and around Atlanta.

In the television categories, the multi-country production “Game of Thrones” and the Missouri-set “Ozark” (which is actually filmed around Atlanta) won the awards for period and contemporary series, respectively.

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In addition to having a hand in one winning film and one winning television series, the Atlanta Mayor’s Office of Film and Entertainment also won the Outstanding Film Commission award.

Honorary awards went to location managers Rino Pace and Josh Karan.

The show was hosted by comedian Jonah Ray.

Also Read: Jon Bernthal Says Kevin Spacey Was a ‘Bully’ on ‘Baby Driver’ Set (Video)

The Location Managers Guild International Awards winners:

Outstanding Locations in a Period Film: “Dunkirk,” Ben Piltz and Arnaud Kaiser
Outstanding Locations in a Contemporary Film: “Baby Driver,” Doug Dresser and Kyle Hinshaw
Outstanding Locations in a Period Television Series: “Game of Thrones,” Robert Boake, Matt Jones and Tate Araez Guzman
Outstanding Locations in a Contemporary Television Series: “Ozark,” Wes Hagan, Kevin Dowling and Patrick Rofoli
Outstanding Locations in a Commercial: Volkswagon: “Atlas,” Charlie Love, Jof Hanwright and John Hutchinson
Outstanding Film Commission: Atlanta Mayor’s Office of Film and Entertainment, “Baby Driver”
Lifetime Achievement Award: Rino Pace
Trailblazer Award: Josh Karan

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‘Dunkirk,’ ‘Baby Driver,’ ‘Game Of Thrones,’ ‘Ozark’ Win At Location Managers Guild Awards

Read on: Deadline.

Christopher Nolan’s WWII epic Dunkirk and Sony’s fast-paced Baby Driver won honors tonight at the fifth annual Location Managers Guild International Awards. In addition, both HBO’s long-running Game of Thrones and Netflix’s critically acclaimed Ozark took home awards for television.
Dunkirk was filmed at the French location of the real evacuation as well as in Malo-les-Bains, while Baby Driver and television location winner Ozark were shot in Atlanta. Game of Thrones was…

Warner Bros Publicity Exec Juli Goodwin Exits After 18 Years

Read on: Deadline.

Juli Goodwin, Warner Bros Pictures’ EVP Domestic Publicity, is exiting the company after almost 18 years. The news came today via a memo to staff, and an announcement from WB’s Worldwide Marketing President Blair Rich.
Goodwin was on the domestic publicity team helped land Oscar Best Picture wins for the studio’s Argo and Million Dollar Baby, and several other noms including this year for Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. Over her career she worked on campaigns for films…

Oscars Scorecard: Wins By Film & Studio

Read on: Deadline.

Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water led all films with four wins at the 90th annual Academy Awards tonight, and its distributor Fox Searchlight took the studio crown with six, having also grabbed two statuettes for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Only six movies won multiple Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Here is the scorecard for wins by film, followed by studio wins:
By film
The Shape of Water: 4
Dunkirk: 3
Blade Runner 2049: 2
Coco

Oscars Kick Off With Cracks About Sexual Harassment, Last Year’s Best Picture Flub

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

Oscars host Jimmy Kimmel kicked off Sunday night’s ceremony with wisecracks about the sexual harassment epidemic that grabbed headlines last year, as well as the Best Picture flub from last year’s ceremony, which found the Oscar being mistakenly handed to “La La Land” rather than the actual winner, “Moonlight.”

“This year, when you hear your name called, don’t get up right away,” Kimmel said from the stage of the Dolby Theatre.

The “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” host went on to explain the flub, saying that the producers asked him to do some comedy with the accountants charged with keeping track of the winners, and he declined.

Also Read: Oscars: Jimmy Kimmel Says Penis-Free Oscar Statue Is Hollywood’s Ideal Man

“So then the accountants went ahead and did some comedy on their own,” Kimmel cracked.

On the sexual harassment front, Kimmel pointed at that this year Oscar turns 90 this year, noting that he’s a respected figure in the entertainment industry. And why not, Kimmel put forth, looking at an over-sized replica of the statuette on the stage.

“He keeps his hands where you can see them, never says a rude word, and most importantly, no penis at all,” Kimmel joked.

Also Read: Oscars: The Complete List of Winners and Nominees (Updating Live)

“Here’s how clueless Hollywood is about women,” Kimmel continued. “They made a movie named ‘What Women Want,’ and it starred Mel Gibson.”

The first award of the night went to Sam Rockwell, who picked up a statuette in the Best Supporting Actor category for his work in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

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Oscars: Sam Rockwell Wins for Supporting Actor

Read on: Variety.

Sam Rockwell kicked off the 90th Annual Academy Awards picking up a best supporting actor award for his performance as a bigoted police officer in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.” Honored for his first nomination, Rockwell thanked his parents for instilling a love of movies in him and dedicated his award to Philip Seymour Hoffman, […]

Oscars Box Office Review: Awards Season Revenue Hits 6-Year Low

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

Oscar Sunday has arrived, ending what has been a quieter-than-usual awards box office season. The two Best Picture nominees with the biggest mainstream success, “Get Out” and “Dunkirk,” had already completed their theatrical runs long before the other films were released. Their combined $364 million comprises 52 percent of the $694 million in domestic revenue made by this year’s Best Picture field, up 5.7 percent from what last year’s field made prior to Oscar Sunday.

But while those two films have boosted the total revenue, the combined box office total made by this year’s field from nomination day to Oscar Sunday is only $126.5 million, according to Box Office Mojo. That’s down 27 percent from last year and the lowest for the period since the 2012 Oscars, when “The Help” was the only film to gross more than $100 million domestically.

Also Read: Oscars 2018: Our Predictions in All 24 Categories (Photos)

As TheWrap noted last month, there are two major factors at play: one is that this year’s batch of awards season offerings doesn’t have anything as intriguing for mainstream moviegoers as Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone in a romantic musical, a biopic about black female scientists, or Leonardo DiCaprio eating an animal’s liver. The other factor is that they have spent the last three weeks going up against one of the biggest domestic releases of all-time, “Black Panther,” a superhero blockbuster that has dominated the cultural conversation and has taken away screen space at movie theaters across the nation.

But while awards season hasn’t set cinema cash registers ablaze, their studios still have reason to smile. The performance of many of these films is still consistent with recent Best Picture winners, which have ranged from $27.5 million domestic by last year’s winner “Moonlight” to $57 million by 2013 winner “12 Years a Slave.” Fox Searchlight’s two contenders have hit the upper end of that range as “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” have domestic grosses of $57 million and $52 million respectively.

In the case of “Shape of Water,” grosses before and after nomination day have been nearly 50-50, with $26 million since Jan. 23. This is because while younger audiences who saw the film when it was first released have flocked to see “Black Panther,” older audiences who tend to go to Oscar films after they’re nominated to catch up on the contenders took their place.

Also Read: 6 Years After ‘Hunger Games,’ Is Jennifer Lawrence Still a Box Office Draw?

According to data provided to TheWrap by movie analytics group Movio, the proportion of moviegoers over the age of 50 going to see “Shape of Water” increased by 23 percent, with fellow contenders “Call Me by Your Name” and “I, Tonya” also enjoying big bumps from older audiences. Movio estimates that this equates to a box office increase of 5-10 percent for those films. Overall, attendance from 50+ audiences for Oscar films has increased 81 percent compared to last year.

So even though awards box office season hit a six-year low, baby boomers and seniors are still providing studios with a good source of revenue, enough that future contenders will likely continue to be marketed and distributed even as major blockbusters like “The New Mutants” and the inevitable “Black Panther” sequel take up space on the Q1 release slate.

“Yes, the window of time in which Oscar films are the main offering at theaters isn’t as big as it used to be,” an anonymous distribution chief told TheWrap last month. “But if your movie gets nominated you still have to strike when the opportunity comes. Besides, the main demographic that goes to see, say ‘The Post,’ probably isn’t going to go see a superhero movie, but there’s always the chance that a person that goes to see a blockbuster might end up getting interested when they see the awards films on the marquee.”

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Oscars: The Complete List of Winners and Nominees (Updating Live)

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

There are relatively few surprises so far on tonight’s Oscar telecast, as expected frontrunners Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) won in the supporting acting categories.

The nominees for Best Picture tonight are “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Check out all of Sunday’s nominees below. TheWrap is updating this list with the actual 2018 Academy Awards winners in real-time. (Winners will be bolded with an asterisk.)

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Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” *WINNER

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Darkest Hour” *WINNER

“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“Phantom Thread” *WINNER
“The Shape of Water”
“Victoria and Abdul”

Also Read: Oscars: Ryan Seacrest Avoids Mentioning Kevin Spacey, #TIMESUP in Christopher Plummer Interview (Video)

Best Documentary Feature
“Faces Places”
“Icarus” *WINNER
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Strong Island”

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049
“Dunkirk” *WINNER
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Achievement in Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049” *WINNER
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Also Read: Every Female Director Nominated for an Oscar, From Lina Wertmuller to Greta Gerwig (Photos)

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water” *WINNER

Foreign Language
“A Fantastic Woman,” Chile *WINNER
“The Insult,” Lebanon
“Loveless,” Russia
“On Body and Soul,” Hungary
“The Square,” Sweden

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” *WINNER
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Also Read: 9 Best Oscars Accessories, From Bloody Antlers to Timothée Chalamet’s Face (Photos)

Best Animated Short Film
“Dear Basketball”
*WINNER
“Garden Party”
“Negative Space”
“Lou”
“Revolting Rhymes”

Best Animated Feature Film
“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco” *WINNER
“Ferdinand”
“Loving, Vincent”

Achievement in Visual Effects
“Blade Runner 2049” *WINNER

“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Also Read: Every Black Director Nominated for an Oscar, From John Singleton to Jordan Peele (Photos)

Film Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk” *WINNER
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Edith + Eddie”
“Heroin(e)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”
“Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405” *WINNER

Best Live Action Short
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child” *WINNER
“Watu Wote: All of Us”
“Dekalb Elementary”

Also Read: Oscars 2018: Our Predictions in All 24 Categories (Photos)

Best Adaptated Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name”
*WINNER
“The Disaster Artist”
“Logan”
“Molly’s Game”
“Mudbound”

Best Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out” *WINNER
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049” *WINNER

“Darkest Hour”
“Mudbound”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”

Also Read: 25 Stars Who Need Only an Oscar to EGOT, From Cynthia Nixon to James Earl Jones (Photos)

Original Score
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Original Song
“Mighty River,” “Mudbound”
“Mystery of Love,” “Call Me by Your Name”
“Remember Me,” “Coco”
“Stand Up for Something,” “Marshall”
“This Is Me,” “The Greatest Showman”

Best Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Also Read: These Cute Kids Re-Created Oscar Movie Moments and It’s the Best Thing Ever (Photos)

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Best Picture
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

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There has never been an Oscars show with a race as wide-open as it is this year, with a remarkable five films heading to the Dolby Theatre with a real chance of winning the Academy Award for Best Picture.

And there has rarely been an Oscars in which the Best Picture race — in fact, all the races — are as overshadowed by outside events as they are this year.

As the 90th Academy Awards take place on Sunday evening, people will want to know how the show is going to address the seismic changes that are taking place in Hollywood in the wake of the Harvey Weinstein allegations and the rise of the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements.

They’ll want to know if the Academy is going to face the thorny issue of diversity in Hollywood, beyond congratulating themselves on nominating four black actors in a year that once had the potential to be a return of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy.

Also Read: All the Oscar-Nominated Movies You Can Watch at Home Right Now

They’ll want to know if host Jimmy Kimmel will get political, and whether his monologue will detour from movie jokes into slaps at Donald Trump.

Will the presenters and winners also speak out, venturing into subjects from sexual misconduct to gun control and turning the Oscars into a bigger, flashier version of January’s black-clad, explicitly political Golden Globe Awards?

Will presenters have the right envelopes when they walk on stage, and how will Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway handle their second chance at giving out Best Picture in the wake of last year’s envelope disaster?

And then, after all that is settled, they’ll want to know if “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will win Best Picture, or if “Lady Bird” or “Dunkirk” could engineer an upset.

In an anniversary year that would normally be the basis for a celebratory Oscars, that’s the very real challenge facing show producers Michael De Luca and Jennifer Todd. They not only have to celebrate the movies and the nominees, they need to convince the audience that it’s OK to glorify the products of an industry that not only contained sexual predators but enabled them.

Before they can get us to rejoice in 90 years of Oscar history, they need to show us that the broken system of Hollywood is worth all the fuss.

Also Read: Spirit Awards Send Jordan Peele and ‘Get Out’ to the Oscars on a Mission

De Luca and Todd have already proven that they have good instincts and they know how to put on a terrific Oscars show: Last year’s ceremony, their first as producers, was about three hours and 45 minutes of sharp, entertaining and occasionally emotional entertainment.

But De Luca and Todd have also learned how easy it is for an Oscars show to be completely overshadowed by things over which they have no control: Last year’s show actually lasted for three hours and 49 minutes — and in those final few minutes, an inattentive PwC accountant gave Beatty the wrong envelope and caused a fiasco that immediately became the only thing that people remember about the show.

The producing duo had certainly earned the chance to do another show that wouldn’t be derailed by distractions — but then, in October, the first Harvey Weinstein stories launched the ultimate distraction, one that made many in Hollywood uncertain about whether any kind of celebration was appropriate.

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In many ways, these are the no-win Oscars: If the show spends too much time on #TimesUp and on political issues, people will complain that it is too political. If if doesn’t spend enough time on issues, people will complain that it’s ignoring the elephant in the room.

And Kimmel is facing the certain knowledge that every time a room full of entertainment industry folks gets together, their minds are not far from the fall of Weinstein and many others over the past five months — and while it would be weird to ignore that, the only way to joke about Weinstein is to be dark and vicious, not always the best fit for the Oscars.

Kimmel can’t really do what co-host John Mulaney did at Saturday’s Film Independent Spirit Awards, when he told a story of meeting Weinstein and hearing the mogul grumble that his TV productions got more attention than his films: “Forget ‘Pulp Fiction,’ my tombstone is gonna say “Project Runway,”‘ he told Mulaney.

“Ah, you don’t gotta worry any more, Harvey,” said Mulaney at the Spirit Awards. “It’s not gonna say ‘Project Runway.’ It’s gonna say ‘XXL unmarked grave.’”

Also Read: Kroll and Mulaney Roast Harvey Weinstein, Louis CK, Kevin Spacey in Spirit Awards Monologue

Still, Kimmel has proven himself adept at mixing comedy and commentary; while the optics might be better if the show had a female host this year, he’s certainly got the skill set to deal with what needs to be dealt with, give the audience permission to laugh and then let them move to celebrating movies.

And if he, De Luca and Todd walk that fine line successfully, they’ll lead the audience into a confounding Oscars. The four acting races seem like foregone conclusions — Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney are all but unstoppable — and categories like Best Director (Guillermo del Toro), Best Adapted Screenplay (“Call Me by Your Name”) and Best Animated Feature (“Coco”) are similarly locks.

But this is also a show that has the chance for some milestones: “Call Me by Your Name” screenwriter James Ivory (89 years, 270 days old) could become the oldest Oscar winner in history, unless “Faces Places” co-director Agnes Varda (89 years, 278 days) beats him to it. Roger Deakins could win his first cinematography Oscar in 14 nominations, or Diane Warren her first song Oscar in nine noms.

Also Read: Warren Beatty, Faye Dunaway to Return to Oscars to Hand Out Best Picture

And it’s a show with the wildest Best Picture race in memory. Guillermo del Toro’s romantic fantasy “The Shape of Water” leads all films with 13 nominations and he’ll certainly win Best Director, but picture and director have split four times in the last five years. “Get Out” could easily sneak in and win, buoyed by support from an Academy that is rapidly growing younger and more diverse — but it only has four total nominations, which would be the fewest for any winner since “Cavalcade” in 1933. “Three Billboards” might have enough support from the huge Actors Branch to eke out a win, but to do so it would have to become only the fourth film in 89 years to win even without a Best Director nomination.

“Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird” also have difficult but conceivable paths to victory — and while the earlier awards will give clues as to what might happen at the end of the night, we legitimately won’t know what’s going to win Best Picture until Beatty and Dunaway open that final envelope.

That ought to be enough for an exciting Oscar show all by itself. But, of course, this is a year that is going to bring much, much more than that, for better and for worse.

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Oscar Pro Tips: Here’s How to Tell the Best Picture Winner Ahead of Time

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We won’t know for sure what film is going to win the Academy Award for Best Picture until the final envelope is opened on Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre.

But attentive viewers should have a pretty good idea which film has the upper hand, because the first 23 categories to be handed out will be dropping plenty of clues.

At the beginning of the night, I’d say that five films have a chance to win. They are, in this approximate order of likelihood, “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird.”

Also Read: Here’s What the Oscars Have Done to Avoid Another Envelope Disaster

And as the show unreels over the next three hours plus, these categories will start to tell the story:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: If Willem Dafoe beats the favored Sam Rockwell, the chances that “Three Billboards” can win Best Picture will take a big hit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: If Laurie Metcalf beats front runner Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”), the Best Picture hopes for “Lady Bird” will get a definite boost.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “Get Out,” “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards” all need to win this. Whichever one does is still in the Best Picture game; the other two are in trouble. If “Shape of Water” wins, it’s over.

BEST FILM EDITING: “Dunkirk” will probably win — and if it doesn’t, its chances of scoring an upset Best Picture victory are probably dead. If “Three Billboards” wins, on the other hand, its chances of winning Best Picture will get a lot better.

Also Read: ‘Three Billboards’ Call Out Hollywood Sex Abuse on Eve of Oscars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY, BEST FILM EDITING, BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “The Shape of Water” can increase its chances of winning Best Picture with upset wins in any of these categories.

BEST SOUND EDITING, BEST SOUND MIXING: If “The Shape of Water” wins one of these categories, it’s probably winning Best Picture. If it wins both of them, it’s definitely winning Best Picture.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: If “Dunkirk” beats “The Shape of Water” for original score, that’ll be a sign that it could do the same for picture.

BEST ACTOR: If Daniel Kaluuya somehow scores an upset victory over Gary Oldman, look for “Get Out” to win Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR: If anybody other than Guillermo del Toro wins, “The Shape of Water” will lose Best Picture. But to what?

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Oscars 2018: YouTube Reveals Best-Picture Leaderboard, but Views Don’t Always Mean Wins

Read on: Variety.

Every year like clockwork, numerous tech companies and data-analytics outfits trot out predictions, based on various metrics and methodologies, about who is likely to win the big prize at the Oscars. Spoiler alert: Their track record isn’t terribly reliable. So take YouTube’s ranking of the 2018 Oscar best-picture nominees, based on trailer views, with the […]

Oscars 2018: Our Predictions in All 24 Categories (Photos)

Read on: TheWrapTheWrap.

We know who’ll win the acting awards, but several other categories — notably including Best Picture — are completely up in the air as Oscar night approaches. Here are our best guesses (and for a more complete explanation, read my fuller analysis):

BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

“The Shape of Water” has the most nominations, 13. It won the Producers Guild and Directors Guild awards. It’s a valentine to the art of cinema. And Guillermo del Toro is almost certainly going to win Best Director. “The Shape of Water” should be a clear front runner.

Predicted Winner: “The Shape of Water”

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

If Best Picture is so split between “Shape of Water,” “Dunkirk,” “Lady Bird” and “Get Out,” shouldn’t this race be a nail-biter between del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig and Peele? Nope. Just as it has in every recent year, the heat has coalesced around a single director, in this case del Toro. This seems to be one of the nine categories that are pretty much a lock.

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro

Also Read: ‘The Shape of Water’ Director Guillermo del Toro Portraits (Exclusive Photos)

 

BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

This is another of those locks. (In fact, all four acting categories are.) While Chalamet and Kaluuya are two of the year’s big discovery, this award was Oldman’s as soon as Focus began screening his all-but-unrecognizable performance as Winston Churchill. Throw in the fact that he’s a huge influence on a couple generations of actors and he was never even nominated for an Oscar until “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” in 2012, and this is an Oscar standing ovation just waiting to happen.

Winner: Gary Oldman

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

It initially seemed to be one of the year’s most competitive categories, with McDormand, Ronan and Hawkins landing massive acclaim, Robbie sneaking into the field with a bold performance and Meryl being Meryl. But then McDormand, an absolute force of nature in “Three Billboards,” starting winning all the awards. And she’s not going to stop now.

Winner: Frances McDormand

Also Read: ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ Dominates BAFTA Awards (Complete List of Winners)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

The two supporting categories followed a similar path. Initially, this one seemed to be a tight race between Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell, with Dafoe having a slight edge because he’s been on voters’ radar for longer and his character is more likable. And then Rockwell, playing a dimwitted and thuggish racist who is one of the only people in “Three Billboards” to slightly change, won SAG and the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Award and BAFTA, which has made him a prohibitive favorite.

Winner: Sam Rockwell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

In this category, too, the softer (and more nuanced?) performance once seemed to have the upper hand, with Laurie Metcalf’s conflicted mom in “Lady Bird” offering more to like than Janney’s fearsome harridan in “I, Tonya.” But voters for all the precursor awards embraced the fun Janney had playing the monster, and Oscar voters seem all but certain to do the same. If there’s an upset in any of the acting categories, this is the likeliest category in which it could happen — but there’s not likely to be an upset.

Winner: Allison Janney

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Disaster Artist”
“Logan”
“Molly’s Game”
“Mudbound”

This is by far the easier of the two writing categories to predict, because the five nominees only include one Best Picture contender, “Call Me by Your Name.” While voters occasionally decide that the best screenplay is the one with the most words, which would be good news for Aaron Sorkin and “Molly’s Game,” nothing seems positioned to challenge James Ivory’s adaptation of the Andre Aciman novel. Plus, it would be the first Oscar for the acclaimed filmmaker who directed such classics as “A Room With a View” and “Howards End.”

Winner: “Call Me by Your Name”

Also Read: Armie Hammer and Timothée Chalamet Dance With Fans in Italy After Empty Screening

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

This writing category, on the other hand, is fiercely competitive, with four Best Picture nominees going up against the extremely well-liked “The Big Sick.” And it’s a measure of just how competitive when you realize that the best-pic favorite, “The Shape of Water,” is probably only the fourth-likeliest winner, behind “Three Billboards,” “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.” This is likely a very close race between “Three Billboards” and “Get Out” — and while Jordan Peele wrote the year’s most zeitgeisty movie and could easily win, “Three Billboards” is a showier piece of writing.

Winner: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Mudbound”
“The Shape of Water”

My thinking in this category might be colored by the idea of justice — because “Blade Runner” DP Roger Deakins, a pretty unanimous choice as the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 13 previous times but has never won, and his astounding work on the Denis Villeneuve epic ought to finally do the trick. But the cinematographers’ names aren’t on the ballot, just their films, and the competition is fearsome, particularly Hoyte van Hoytema’s dazzling large-format work in “Dunkirk” and Dan Laustsen’s fairy-tale world in “The Shape of Water.” Either of them could win — and even without names on the ballot, voters are probably well aware of (and possibly tempted by) the fact that “Mudbound” was shot by Rachel Morrison, the first female cinematography nominee in history.

But particularly after the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA did it, I have to think that Oscar voters will finally do right by Roger Deakins. I just have to.

Winner: “Blade Runner 2049”

BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk”
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

“Baby Driver” is such a virtuoso piece of fast-paced editing that it could well prove an exception to the usual rule that you need to be a Best Picture nominee to win in this category (as 13 of the last 15 winners have been). But the whole setup of “Dunkirk,” which simultaneously cuts between three different war stories taking place at different locations and different times, is an advertisement for its editing. The film may join “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Gravity,” “The Hurt Locker” and “The Bourne Identity” as a movie that sweeps film editing and both sound categories.

Winner: “Dunkirk”

Also Read: Top Film Editing Awards Go to ‘Dunkirk,’ ‘I, Tonya’

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
“Victoria & Abdul”

It was a shock when the Costume Designers Guild gave its period-costumes award not to “Phantom Thread,” the movie about a clothes designer, but to “The Shape of Water,” most of whose characters sport lab coats or cleaning-lady smocks. But unless they think that the design of that movie’s aquatic creature qualifies as a costume, it’s unlikely that Oscar voters will go the same route. Instead, look for them to recognize the movie in which the man makes the clothes and the clothes make the man … and the women.

Winner: “Phantom Thread”

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”

“Beauty and the Beast” is the kind of beautiful, wildly elaborate fantasy that often wins in this category, but it won’t help that a lot of the design is a variation on the design created by the Disney animators back in 1991. This should be a showdown between the amazing futurescapes of “Blade Runner” and the richly detailed environments of “The Shape of Water” — and the fact that voters like the latter movie better than the former one could tip the scales.

Winner: “The Shape of Water”

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
“Darkest Hour”
“Victoria & Abdul”
“Wonder”

Here’s another lock, because only one of these films features makeup that is instrumental in an Oscar-winning performance. Before Gary Oldman could act like Winston Churchill, he had to look like Winston Churchill, and that was the considerable accomplishment of the “Darkest Hour” makeup team.

Winner: “Darkest Hour”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees:
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

John Williams is a giant who has been nominated an astonishing 51 times, but he hasn’t won in 34 years and it’s hard to imagine his eighth “Star Wars” score breaking the streak. (He only won for the first one, in 1977.) Carter Burwell’s “Three Billboards” score is subtle and understated, Hans Zimmer’s “Dunkirk” music bold and intricate, and Jonny Greenwood’s “Phantom Thread” score alternately stately and challenging. They’re all terrific — but voters love a piece of music that instantly captures the mood of a film they admire, and Alexandre Desplat provides that in his music for “The Shape of Water.”

Winner: “The Shape of Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name”
“Remember Me” from “Coco”
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall”
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”

Nine-time song nominee Diane Warren, who has never won, has been tireless in pushing her anthemic “Stand Up for Something,” and the song does seem to have some momentum. But it’ll be difficult to overcome the visibility of “Remember Me,” the centerpiece song from “Coco” and a new composition by the team that gave us “Let It Go”; and “This Is Me,” a highlight in the surprisingly successful musical “The Greatest Showman” and a song that is suddenly all over YouTube and has been featured in NBC’s coverage of the Olympics.

“Remember Me” is from a bigger movie but “This Is Me” is becoming a phenomenon at just the right time, which will probably give “City of Stars” writers Benj Pasek and Justin Paul their second consecutive song Oscar.

Winner: “This Is Me”

Also Read: Oscars: 18 Best Original Song Contenders Speak, From Nick Jonas to Questlove (Exclusive Photos)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

It might be hard for laymen to understand the difference between the two Oscar sound categories — but most voters understand that sound editing involves the creation of artificial sound effects, which means that this award typically goes to one of the biggest, loudest nominees. Two previous Christopher Nolan movies, “The Dark Knight” and “Inception,” have won in this category, and his “Dunkirk” should have the scale and drama to give him a third — unless voters want to reward the scrappy little “Baby Driver” or give a nod to “Blade Runner 2049,” whose director Denis Villeneuve was also responsible for last year’s winner, “Arrival.”

Winner: “Dunkirk”

BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Over the last 12 years, the same film has won in both Oscar sound categories eight times — so when in doubt, it’s best to predict a sound-category sweep. This year also lacks the kind of big musical nominee that often wins in the category, which will help “Dunkirk” in its quest to win another.

Winner: “Dunkirk”

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

At the Oscar nominees luncheon, I listened as one of the other nominees told Joe Letteri, the 10-time Oscar nominee and four-time winner who’s up again for “War for the Planet of the Apes,” that there was no way he wouldn’t win another Oscar. And if other VFX whizzes were voting, that’s no doubt true, since the last three “Apes” movies have won the top prize from the Visual Effects Society. But they’ve never won the Oscar despite the remarkable work they’ve done in creating a world of completely believable apes, and “Apes” faces a formidable challenger this year in the futurescapes of “Blade Runner 2049.”

Still, unless the resistance to the “Apes” movies runs deep — which, for some inexplicable reason, it might — we’re guessing that voters will finally come to their senses and realize what an accomplishment the simian saga has been.

Winner: “War for the Planet of the Apes”

Also Read: Will ‘Planet of the Apes’ Finally Win a VFX Oscar? If Level of Difficulty Counted Most It Would (Video)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:
“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”

Has “Coco” lost anything it’s been nominated for this year? If so, I wasn’t paying attention. Pixar is a juggernaut in this category, with 11 nominations and nine wins since the category began in 2001; the last one of their films that was nominated but didn’t win was “Cars” in 2006. Despite the technical accomplishment of “Loving Vincent” and the cross-cultural beauty of “The Breadwinner,” “Coco” really can’t lose.

Winner: “Coco”

 

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:
“A Fantastic Woman,” Chile
“The Insult,” Lebanon
“Loveless,” Russia
“On Body and Soul,” Hungary
“The Square,” Sweden

Every year, we look at the field and say, “If the voters watch all the movies before they vote, the way they’re supposed to, Movie X will win.” And every year, that movie loses to something more timely (“The Salesman” over “A Man Called Ove” last year) or more significant (“Son of Saul” over “Mustang” the year before). This year, the “if voters watch everything” movie is probably Lebanon’s personal/political drama “The Insult.”

The Palme d’Or-winning “The Square” is bigger and more acclaimed, but it might well be too divisive and too much of a comedy to win. That leaves the touching “A Fantastic Woman” as the important movie (featuring transgender Oscar presenter Daniela Vega) that could win if voters want to send a message about inclusion and LGBT acceptance. In a very close race, we think the Euro-centric nature of the Academy’s international membership may give the slightest of edges to “The Insult.”

Winner: “The Insult”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

“Last Men in Aleppo” might have gotten a boost from the publicity when its producer couldn’t get a visa to attend the Oscars — but a film about Syria’s White Helmets won the short-doc Oscar last year and voters might not want to honor another so soon after. “Icarus” could have gotten a bump by the Olympics, since its investigation into Russian sports doping helped get that country banned from the Pyeongchang games — except that every time we saw another athlete competing under the “Olympic Athlete from Russia” banner, it undercut the movie’s tagline as “the thriller that brought down an empire.”

With none of the four issue-oriented films really standing out, it’s quite possible that the serious vote will split four ways and allow the beloved French icon Agnès Varda to become the oldest Oscar winner ever for her and co-director JR’s wry and delightful travelogue “Faces Places.”

Winner: “Faces Places”

Also Read: ‘Faces Places’ Directors Agnès Varda and JR Look for Fun in a ‘Disgusting’ World

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Nominees:
“Edith+Eddie”
“Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin(e)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”

In what is probably the Oscar category with the fewest voters, the two strongest contenders are “Heroin(e),” a wrenching but also inspiring look at the opioid crisis in West Virginia though the eyes of three women (a fire chief, a judge and a crusading volunteer) on the front lines, and “Edith+Eddie,” a character study of the country’s oldest biracial newlyweds that leaves viewers utterly infuriated at government indifference toward the elderly. (But don’t underestimate “Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” a character study of an L.A. artist that plays into voters’ affection for films about the arts.) Typically, the film that wins in this category is the film that leaves viewers with some hope, which could give “Heroin(e)” a tiny edge.

Winner: “Heroin(e)”

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Nominees:
“Dear Basketball”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”

At the Oscar nominees luncheon, there was no bigger star in the room than Kobe Bryant, and nobody who posed for more selfies. That kind of star power could well push “Dear Basketball” to victory — although it has also caused a quiet backlash among some Academy members who aren’t Kobe devotees and may balk at giving an award to a guy who once settled a rape accusation out of court. Perennial winner Pixar’s sweet “Lou” might be too much of a kids’ film to prevail, but the wry and touching family story “Negative Space” or the dark and amazingly photorealistic “Garden Party” could benefit if the backlash takes hold.

But “Dear Basketball” is a very personal film in a category that often goes to the most personal nominee, and animator/director Glen Keane is a Disney vet almost as beloved in animation as Kobe is in basketball.

Winner: “Dear Basketball”

Also Read: Tribeca: Kobe Bryant on His New Career as Storyteller, Moviemaker

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Nominees:
“DeKalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”

Three of the nominees — “DeKalb Elementary,” “My Nephew Emmett” and “Watu Wote” — are exceptional, fact-based student films that could not be timelier: “DeKalb” deals with a shooter at an elementary school, “Emmett” with a horrifying episode that helped trigger the civil rights movement, “Watu Wote” with Christian/Muslim tensions. Crucially, “DeKalb” and “Watu Wote” are works that showcase the best side of humanity and give hope that there can be a way out of impossibly dark situations — but if the serious vote splits between the four tough and sobering films, the sharp and very funny “The Eleven O’Clock” is positioned to sneak in and win in a very strong category and a very tight race.

Winner: “DeKalb Elementary”