Frances McDormand Oscar Thief Documents Stealing Statue With Facebook Video — Watch

Musician Terry Bryant was taken into police custody late Sunday, just before midnight.

The man LAPD officers say stole Frances McDormand’s Best Actress Oscar posted a Facebook video of himself brandishing the statuette shortly before his arrest. Deadline identified the suspect as Terry Bryant, 47, who was cuffed for felony grand theft.

Bryant captioned the three-minute cellphone-filmed clip “My Oscar baby.” The footage begins with Bryant asking his Facebook friends, “What’s up baby boys and baby girls?,” as he spills a drink he’s attempting to sip at the Governor’s Ball. Next he hoists McDormand’s trophy, kissing it three times and professing untruths like, “My team got this tonight” and “Look at, I got this, it’s mine!” At one point,  he says to no one in particular, “You know what? I can’t believe I got this.”

He also asks the room, “Who wants to tell me congratulations?,” giving people permission to touch the award. An inquiring woman wonders, “Is it engraved yet? Has it got your name on it?,” which Bryant ignores. When she later comments on how heavy Oscars are, Bryant asks, “You want to hold mine?”

Frances McDormand, winner of the award for best performance by an actress in a leading role for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", attends the Governors Ball after the Oscars, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles90th Academy Awards - Governors Ball, Los Angeles, USA - 04 Mar 2018

Frances McDormand with her Oscar at the 2018 Governor’s Ball

Eric Jamison/Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock

For most of the video, Bryant is discussing plans to attend various Oscar night soirées, hosted by the likes of Vanity Fair and Jimmy Kimmel (“I’m about to go to so many parties”). Within 30 seconds, Bryant states that he won the poached prize for both music and producing.

According to his Bandcamp website, Bryant is a performer under the name D.J. Matari. In 2013, he released an album called “Greatness Is Living Inside of You.” His bail was set at $20,000 in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. McDormand’s Oscar for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” has been returned to her.

Elsewhere on Bryant’s Facebook page, he claims to have been appointed a United Nations Goodwill Ambassador by the Golden Rule International, an organization that is not affiliated with the UN.

Watch the incriminating evidence below.

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Frances McDormand’s Best Actress Oscar Was Stolen From Her and Returned During After Party — Report

Stealing an Oscar is never a good idea, but that’s especially true when the trophy belongs to Frances McDormand.

Frances McDormand became a rare two-time Oscar winner for Best Actress when she took home the honor for her role in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” this year, but it turns out someone tried to take the actress’ second Oscar away from her. The Playlist’s Gregory Ellwood reports that McDormand’s Oscar was stolen from her during the Academy Awards’ Governors Ball, which is the first party that takes place following the ceremony.

Fortunately, the thief didn’t make it outside of the Governors Ball. McDormand reported the incident after noticing her trophy was missing and soon after a photographer and a security guard apprehended the person and safely returned the Oscar to her. The person has not been named yet, but TMZ reports that he was arrested for felony grand theft. A reporter form The New York Times tweeted the following photo of the person.

McDormand’s Oscar win was one of the defining moments of the 2018 Academy Awards. During her speech, she called on every female nominated for an Oscar to stand and be rewarded with an applause from the audience. McDormand concluded her speech by urging her fellow actors to demand an “inclusion rider” when signing on to projects.

IndieWire has reached out to McDormand’s representatives and The Academy for comment.

Frances McDormand Wins Indie Spirit Award for Best Actress for ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

“I continue to be amazed that you let me get to the microphone,” McDormand said.

Frances McDormand won top honors at the 2018 Indie Spirit Awards, taking home the prize for Best Actress for her acclaimed role in Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” McDormand beat out fellow nominees Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”), Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”), Salma Hayek (“Beatriz at Dinner”), Shinobu Terajima (“Oh Lucy!”), and Regina Williams (“Life and Nothing More”). Ronan and Robbie are also in the running for the Academy Award against McDormand Sunday night.

This is the third Indie Spirit Award for the actress out of four total nominations; she won previously for “Fargo” (1997) and “Friends With Money” (2007). McDormand has swept nearly all of the major Oscars precursors, winning the Golden Globe, SAG Award, and BAFTA for her role as Mildred, the steely grieving mother who rents three billboards provoking the local police chief to ramp up his investigation into her daughter’s murder.

“Do you know how hard it has been not to swear for the last six months?” McDormand quipped. “As Martin McDonagh knows, a well-placed fuck makes a sentence sing like nothing else.”

Different from the Oscars, the Independent Spirit Awards exclusively celebrate the best of independent cinema. Films must be made for less than $20 million in order to be eligible for the Indie Spirit Awards. The winners are voted on by Film Independent and IFP Members.

The 33rd Annual Spirit Awards were held in a beachfront tent next to the Santa Monica Pier on Saturday, March 3. Comedians Nick Kroll and John Mulaney hosted the show for the second year in a row.

Final Oscar 2018 Predictions: ‘The Shape of Water’ Will Win Four of its 13 Nominations

The 2018 Oscars are driven by competing voting bodies, older and whiter American males vs. a younger more diverse and international crowd. Which will dominate the night?

The Oscars this Sunday are driven by several competing narratives; the question is which one will dominate the night. And the preferential ballot — each voter ranks the nine nominees — all comes down to the movies Academy members actually saw and loved the most, and which film aligns with the zeitgeist to deliver the message that voters want to send.

That’s why politics are bound to intrude. Is the old (white male) guard still in control? Or is the younger, more diverse and international membership, brought on in the last two years since #Oscarssowhite — about 20 percent of the Academy’s 7,258 members — steering a more inclusionary course? In other words, many wonder if the “Moonlight” narrative continues. (We are not talking about that crazy Pricewaterhousecoopers snafu — steps have been taken to prevent those mistakes. Onward.)

The Academy actors’ branch nominated four actors of color this year (down from seven in 2017): third-timer Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”) and “Roman Israel, Esq.” star Denzel Washington (his eighth acting nomination) as well as newcomers Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”) and Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”), the only acting nominee to ever perform her own nominated Best Song, “Mighty River.” Another nominated film celebrates the diverse musical culture of Mexico, Disney/Pixar global blockbuster “Coco” ($738 million worldwide).

“Get Out”

Other historical precedents were set when the first woman ever, Rachel Morrison, earned a nomination for Best Cinematographer for “Mudbound.” Greta Gerwig is only the fifth woman ever nominated for Best Director, while her fellow actor-turned-auteur, “Get Out” director Jordan Peele, is only the fourth African-American to earn a Best Director nomination (after John Singleton, Lee Daniels, and Barry Jenkins). In the year of #Timesup, Tatiana Riegel (“I, Tonya”)stands out as the only woman editor nominated this year. Foreign nominee “A Fantastic Woman” is the first Oscar contender to star a transgender actress, Daniela Vega, while documentary nominee “Strong Island” is directed by black and queer Yance Ford, marking the first time a film from an out transgender filmmaker received an Oscar nomination, and only the fifth nomination for a transgender person ever.

Politics of a different kind will inform other Oscar races. Best Foreign Language Film contender “The Salesman” and documentary short “White Helmets” both took home 2017 Oscars partly because they nabbed press when they ran afoul of Donald Trump’s Muslim travel ban. This year, searing Syrian White Helmets documentary “The Last Men in Aleppo” pulled media coverage as well, when its travel ban drama played out during the balloting. In the end, everyone who wanted to attend the Oscars got their visa.

But who will actually win? Even with the Academy’s expansive membership push, women still make up only 28 percent of the Academy’s 7,258 members, while people of color are at 13 percent.

Check my final predictions below.

Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in the film THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

“The Shape of Water”

Fox Searchlight

Best Picture

Will win: “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight)

Besides “Get Out” and “Lady Bird,” the other Best Picture contender that leans into the inclusion narrative is Mexican import Guillermo del Toro’s retro fantasy “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight), about two outsiders who find love. It will surely win some Oscars. Just as the Academy recognized the artistry and craftsmanship of Del Toro’s Spanish-language nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” (six nominations, three wins including cinematography, makeup, and art direction), voters responded to his English-language masterwork “The Shape of Water” with 13 nominations, leading the field. But out of its 13 nominations, will it win two, like the Golden Globes (Director and Score), or three, like the BAFTAs (Director, Production Design, Music)? By my tally it will grab four, including Best Picture.

Del Toro builds an immersive ’60s fantasy world that could only come from his prodigious imagination. The Mexican transplant is a respected and beloved figure who has managed to artfully mix genre and commercial elements with his own personal artistic imprint.

The dominant crafts (a total of 3,216 Academy voters) appreciate this impeccably designed and photographed fairy-tale romance that matches a mute laboratory cleaning woman (Sally Hawkins) with a glowing captive merman (Del Toro regular Doug Jones). They see beauty and sensuality in each other where others (like Michael Shannon’s abusive government agent) see aberration. Although the movie notably missed a SAG Ensemble nomination, the Academy actors branch nominated three Oscar veterans, Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine”), Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor”) as her gay neighbor, and Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) as her protective and talkative cleaning partner.

However, the nominations frontrunner doesn’t always win on Oscar night. Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” scored 12 and won only two; Alejandro González Iñárritu’s splashy outdoor actioner “The Revenant” led the field with 12 — and took home three; and last year’s “La La Land” boasted 12 nominations and won five, but lost Best Picture.

Bottom Line: This inclusionary fable about lonely outsiders who find love is the contender with gravitas that ticks all the boxes in terms of equal male-female appeal plus scale and scope and support from both crafts and actors. That said, no fantasy has won Best Picture since “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.”

Spoilers: “Get Out” (Universal) and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight)

An alternate scenario leads to another Fox Searchlight contender taking home a Best Picture win. With seven nominations, Martin McDonagh’s cathartic crowd-pleaser “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is riding a surge from five BAFTA wins, and won the SAG Ensemble, which is not predictive, but the stats suggest that not getting a SAG nomination is a negative for a Best Picture win.

The divisive $12-million revenge movie may have more support outside the Academy. At the Toronto Film Festival, the film won the audience award, and is clearly beloved in the U.K. Significantly, though, McDonagh did not land a directing nod, and lost the DGA to Del Toro (he wasn’t eligible for the WGA). Only four films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: “Wings,” “Grand Hotel,” “Driving Miss Daisy,” and “Argo.”

Bottom Line: Clearly, “Three Billboards” is in a position to take home Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). They swept the precursor awards and will likely collect their Oscars, too. But that’s probably where the film’s strongest support lies.

“Get Out”

While the overall Academy tends to be myopic and snobby about horror fare, the writers and directors do like to champion emerging talent, from Orson Welles (“Citizen Kane”) to John Singleton (“Boyz N the Hood”). Of course, the exception to prove all rules, 1991’s horror flick “The Silence of the Lambs,” nabbed five Oscars including Best Picture, Director Jonathan Demme, Screenplay Ted Tally, Actor Anthony Hopkins, and Actress Jodie Foster.

With four Oscar nods — none of them technical — Peele is most likely to prevail over friendly rival Gerwig, as he did at the Writers Guild, because of the sheer auteur originality of his expectation-subverting achievement. (He says he wrote about 40 drafts.) Who else could have pulled this off?

But it’s hard to deny that “Get Out” is an entertaining genre entry, even if it has serious themes in mind. More often than not, gravitas tends to win the day with Oscar voters. Which is why finally this movie will most likely take home one Oscar, for Best Original Screenplay.

Bottom Line: If anything can unseat “The Shape of Water” for Best Picture, with the hard-to-gauge preferential ballot and an expanded younger and more diverse Academy membership, it’s this timely racial thriller, started during the Obama administration and completed in the age of Trump. This could be the zeitgeist play.

May you win your Oscar pool. My final list of picks in 24 categories is below:

Best Picture: “The Shape of Water”

Spoiler: “Get Out”

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)

Spoiler: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)

Spoiler: Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Spoiler: Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Spoiler: Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

Spoiler: Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)

Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)

Spoiler: Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory (“Call Me By Your Name”)

Spoiler: Virgil Williams & Dee Rees (“Mudbound”)

Best Animated Feature: “Coco”

Spoiler: “The Breadwinner”

Best Animated Short: “Dear Basketball”

Spoiler: “Revolting Rhymes”

Best Cinematography: “Blade Runner 2049”

Spoiler: “Dunkirk”

Best Costume Design: “Phantom Thread”

Spoiler: “Darkest Hour”

Best Documentary Feature: “Faces, Places”

Spoiler: “Last Men in Aleppo”

Best Documentary Short: “Heroin(e)”

Spoiler:
“Edith + Eddie”

Best Editing: “Dunkirk”

Spoiler: “Baby Driver”

Best Foreign Language Film: “A Fantastic Woman”

Spoiler: “The Square”

Best Live Action Short:
“DeKalb Elementary”

Spoiler: “The Silent Child”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Darkest Hour”

Spoiler: “Victoria & Abdul”

Best Production Design: “The Shape of Water”

Spoiler: “Blade Runner 2049”

Best Original Score:
“The Shape of Water”

Spoiler: “Phantom Thread”

Best Original Song: “Remember Me” (“Coco”)

Spoiler:
“This is Me” (“The Greatest Showman”)

Best Sound Editing: “Dunkirk”

Spoiler: “Baby Driver”

Best Sound Mixing: “Dunkirk”

Spoiler: “Baby Driver”

Best Visual Effects: “War for the Planet of the Apes”

Spoiler: “Blade Runner 2049”

Anonymous Oscar Ballot: Producer Says Oscar Voters Tend Toward “political correctness” and “laziness”

Our Academy voter candidly shares their thought process as they ponder their Oscar ballot.

Here’s another in our series of interviews with a swath of Academy voters from different branches for their candid thoughts on what got picked, overlooked, and overvalued this year. 

With the nominations, everything followed the politically coolest version and will continue to do so. Any surprises will lean toward political correctness this year. We’re supposed to judge 100 per cent on merit, not 90 per cent and 10 per cent who is in the middle of a controversy [James Franco], who is deserving because their race or gender has been under-represented in the past.

The one fault the Academy has had in the last 10 or 15 years is not that it’s racist or gender-weighted. The biggest offense is that [Academy voters] are not doing their homework, not seeing the movies. There’s not a bias, there’s a tendency for laziness, to check the same old box, whether its Denzel Washington or Meryl Streep. Something needs to done to make sure the movies are seen!

DAVID PARFITT, DONNA GIGLIOTTI, HARVEY WEINSTEIN, GWYNETH PALTROW, EDWARD ZWICK AND MARC NORMAN.OSCAR AWARD CEREMONY, AMERICA - 1999

David Parfitt, Donna Gigliotti, Harvey Weinstein, Gwyneth Paltrow, Edward Zwick and Marc Norman all won Oscars for “Shakespeare in Love” in 1999.

REX/Shutterstock

I’m as guilty as the majority of the Academy for not going deeper into the film work of the entire year. I thought “Mudbound” [director Dee Rees] was really deserving of a Best Director nod.

What you don’t want to happen to the Academy is what happens to the rest of a political system: that the people who are backed the heaviest, have the best financial backing and publicists and ground game, are the ones getting the nominations. Is it a coincidence, the whole Harvey Weinstein thing? Were his movies [like “Shakespeare in Love,” “The Cider House Rules,” “Chocolat”] really that good? He campaigned the best.

4106_D013_00374_CROP(ctr) Gary Oldman stars as Winston Churchill in director Joe Wright's DARKEST HOUR, a Focus Features release.Credit: Jack English / Focus Features

“Darkest Hour”

Jack English

Best Picture

I think the bar is medium high this year. The movies are good, not great. Boundaries have been pushed. We’re always looking to break new ground and tell new stories and do it in a way that hasn’t been done before. It’s not the most exceptional version of what we’ve had in the past, but we’ve gotten some exciting, bold films this year. Eight out of the nine movies are strong and original voices. The only one that’s a retread is “The Post.”

I like “Darkest Hour.” There were things in that movie that we’ve never seen or expected from that type of film. Look at Joe Wright’s track record: he’s a good director whose movies have gotten lot of praise and recognition, yet he’s unthanked. I put his film near the top of the group.

Best Actor

Gary Oldman is a lock.

I do think politics creeps into the outcome. For that reason, “The Shape of Water” becomes the Best Picture winner by default. I don’t think the Academy is going to give Best Picture to the movie about racist cops [“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”]. It’s also possibly Sally Hawkins. People don’t look at the fact that the foreign and especially the UK membership can swing things and buck the trend. If “The Shape of Water” wins, it gets that European vote.

There’s stink on “Three Billboards.” It definitely won’t get Best Picture. It doesn’t have director: it’s not “Argo.”

“Dunkirk” could be a lot of people’s second choice. “Dunkirk” is in the top three. To me it’s “Shape,” “Billboards” and “Dunkirk” on a lot of ballots.

I don’t see “Get Out” in the top three. “Get Out” is not Best Picture enough. “Moonlight” was in the conversation the whole season. “Get Out” is a smart movie but it doesn’t quite have the sophistication the Academy sometimes gravitates towards, it’s a little too commercial. It has no shot at Best Picture, especially in light of the new European-centric membership breakdown.

Jordan Peele in his Los Feliz office.

Anne Thompson

Original Screenplay

“Get Out” is the favorite.

Adapted Screenplay

It’s “Call Me By Your Name.”

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro [“The Shape of Water”] is a lock. This year the Academy is going to vote safer, after so much political controversy, make the safe choices. The default safe choice is Guillermo and “The Shape of Water.”

Greta Gerwig may not win anything. That would be sad. “Lady Bird” is the upset possibility with the Academy at large. They could go with Greta, who has such a strong team behind her, led by Liz Mahoney. She’s so likable. I might change my mind and make her my upset pick. Actors are stronger than the WGA in the Academy.

Frances McDormand

Frances McDormand accepting her SAG award for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Rob Latour/REX/Shutterstock

Best Actress

It’s probably going to be Fran [McDormand]. It’s not a 100 per cent lock but it’s pretty close. Sally Hawkins [“The Shape of Water”] or Margot Robbie [“I, Tonya”] are a possibility. Sally has a chance.

I don’t think “Three Billboards” is going to get a lot of love. This is one category where they have to give it to them. I love a movie that keeps you guessing. Everything Wesley Morris [The New York Times] hates about the movie, I like and respect. The characters are complicated and difficult. It’s extremely well-written and directed. The movie deals with something that is hard, when you step away, to root for — that kind of racist. There’s a possibility of an upset there.

Willem DafoeThe Academy Awards Nominees Luncheon, Los Angeles, USA - 05 Feb 2018

Willem Dafoe at the 2018 Academy Awards Nominees Luncheon

Matt Baron/REX/Shutterstock

Supporting Actor

It will effect Sam Rockwell. The one possible upset surprise could be Willem Dafoe. He’s a three-time nominee, well-liked, solid citizen, great actor. It would be for a combination of body of work, and critics groups loved his performance. If the Academy sees the movie –which they probably won’t –he has a real shot. Some sentimentality does creep into this stuff.

Allison JanneyThe Academy Awards Nominees Luncheon, Los Angeles, USA - 05 Feb 2018

Allison Janney

Chelsea Lauren/REX/Shutterstock

Supporting Actress

The Academy is not always going to completely follow suit everywhere. If there’s any spot, people think it could be on the Supporting Actress side. It could be a shocker. Has Laurie Metcalf [“Lady Bird”] won anything? But Allison Janney has such a flashy role, with the bird and the knife and “I, Tonya” is very good, even if it underperformed with nominations.

 

Director Denis Villeneuve and DP Roger Deakins on the set of "Blade Runner 2049"

Director Denis Villeneuve and DP Roger Deakins on the set of “Blade Runner 2049”

Stephen Vaughan

Cinematography

It has finally got to be Roger Deakins’ year. He got the ASC.

Costumes

I’m leaning in the direction of “Darkest Hour,” even though it doesn’t take the same imagination necessary for”Beauty and the Beast.” With “Darkest Hour” you are transported into that time and space seamlessly and costumes are part of that experience.

“The Shape of Water”

Production Design

I think the Academy and the world are in the mood for a fantastical love story, which is why “The Shape of Water” checks that box better than any other movie.

Editing

“The Shape of Water”

Score

“The Shape of Water.” We’re never going to allow something that isn’t well-made to sneak into whatever the trend is that year. The movie does fit into the trend and the politics. It’s well-made and original and inspiring. It breaks some new ground.

Sam Rockwell will probably win Best Supporting Actor, but our hearts belong to another

The 90th Academy Awards are coming up Sunday, March 4th and Film Club is counting down the days leading up to the ceremony with an examination of this year’s major categories. Each day, A.V. Club film editor A.A. Dowd and staff critic Ignatiy Vishnevetsky will break down a category and give us their picks for who

Read more…

The 90th Academy Awards are coming up Sunday, March 4th and Film Club is counting down the days leading up to the ceremony with an examination of this year’s major categories. Each day, A.V. Club film editor A.A. Dowd and staff critic Ignatiy Vishnevetsky will break down a category and give us their picks for who

Read more...

It’s ‘The Shape of Water’ vs. ‘Get Out’ for Three Top Oscars, and Jordan Peele Will Win One

Interviews with top picks Peele and Guillermo Del Toro, and why “The Shape of Water” should prevail in two out of three categories against “Get Out.”

As Oscar voters ponder their ballots (which are due Tuesday), two films are rising to the top of three key races: Best Original Screenplay, Director, and Picture. (We’ll discuss the Acting races later.) In each category, writer-directors Guillermo del Toro and Jordan Peele, with fantasy romance “The Shape of Water” and suspense thriller “Get Out” respectively, are duking it out for the win.

What about their rivals? While the other contenders for Best Picture — Christopher Nolan’s World War II blockbuster “Dunkirk,” Martin McDonagh’s Ozark dramedy “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and Greta Gerwig’s relationship comedy “Lady Bird” — all boast ardent supporters, they may not prevail against the two most robust competitors for those three Oscars.

Nolan should have done better at the BAFTAs on his home turf. It’s possible that the two British World War II movies, “Darkest Hour” and “Dunkirk,” knocked each other out. But IMAX epic spectacle “Dunkirk” didn’t land Editing or VFX BAFTAs either — just Sound. Even though it boasts eight Oscar nominations, the soaring action epic lacks crucial actor and writer votes, and may have to settle for a few technical wins.

Divisive $12-million revenge movie “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight) may have more support outside the Academy. At the Toronto Film Festival, the film won the audience award, and in the U.K., the movie scored five top BAFTAs. Of course, the movie did score seven nominations, including actors Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, who swept the precursor awards and will likely collect their Oscars, too. But that’s probably where the film’s strongest support lies; the movie did win SAG Ensemble. Significantly, though, McDonagh did not land a directing nod, and lost the DGA to Del Toro (he wasn’t eligible for the WGA). Only four films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: “Wings,” “Grand Hotel,” “Driving Miss Daisy,” and “Argo.”

So did Gerwig. Actors and writers also love “Lady Bird,” which took home a Golden Globe comedy win for Saoirse Ronan. But it could go home empty-handed on Oscar night, as Ronan lost the SAG and BAFTAs to McDormand and “I, Tonya” star Allison Janney keeps beating out another formidable actress mom, Laurie Metcalf.

Here’s a look at the two top Oscar rivals and what they’ll win on March 4. (Check out FiveThirtyEight predictions here, Gold Derby predictions here, and IndieWire predictions here.)

“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight, Metascore: 85)

Awards: PGA, DGA, ACE Eddie Awards, and Best Director, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Los Angeles Film Critics.

Just as the Academy recognized the artistry and craftsmanship of Del Toro’s Spanish-language nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” (six nominations, three wins including cinematography, makeup, and art direction), voters responded to his English-language masterwork “The Shape of Water” with 13 nominations, leading the field.

Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins, Guillermo del Toro. Sally Hawkins, left, and Richard Jenkins, right, pose with Guillermo del Toro and a plaque honoring his nomination for outstanding directorial achievement in a feature film for "The Shape of Water" at the 70th annual Directors Guild of America Awards at The Beverly Hilton hotel, in Beverly Hills, CalifAPTOPIX 70th Annual DGA Awards - Press Room, Beverly Hills, USA - 03 Feb 2018

Sally Hawkins and Richard Jenkins with their “The Shape of Water” director Guillermo del Toro at the DGA Awards

Piz/Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock

Del Toro builds an immersive ’60s fantasy world that could only come from his prodigious imagination. The Mexican transplant is a respected and beloved figure who has managed to artfully mix genre and commercial elements with his own personal artistic imprint.

The crafts appreciate this impeccably designed and photographed fairy-tale romance that matches a mute laboratory cleaning woman (Sally Hawkins) with a glowing captive merman (Del Toro regular Doug Jones). They see beauty and sensuality in each other where others (like Michael Shannon’s abusive government agent) see abhorrent aberration. Although the movie notably missed a SAG Ensemble nomination, the Academy actors branch nominated three Oscar veterans, Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine”), Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor”) as her gay neighbor, and Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) as her protective and talkative cleaning partner.

“I wanted to tell the story of the patron saint of otherness outcasts, which was this creature,” said Del Toro. “It was great to do a love story in 1962 in the Cold War; the only trick was to do it for less for $20 million. And I wanted to make a movie in love with cinema. I wanted it to be shameless and earnest and honest and not postmodern, reflective. It took five years to get this done right.”

"The Shape of Water"

“The Shape of Water”

Fox Searchlight

For three years, Del Toro spent his own money to develop the creature design — a sculpted, layered prosthetic suit to be worn by actor-dancer Jones — before pitching Fox Searchlight. “I was creating a leading man,” he said. “It was incredibly difficult to get despair, tenderness, and innocence.” At the Searchlight meeting “they were crying and I was crying,” said Del Toro. “And they said, ‘OK.'”

Del Toro asked himself, “Can I make a love story between two people that at first seem completely different? And make sex part of the process, but not the reason to make the movie?” So he made his sparkling river God sexy. “We gave him a swimmer’s body, shoulders, a perfect ass, great eyes and lips,” said Del Toro. “I wanted him to be beautiful, but for this not to be titillating. It is not about a woman and a monster: it’s about two beautiful beings that don’t belong on this earth. It is the first movie where I embrace sexuality. The movie is beyond the romantic; it has a magic purity. I wanted to make it as an antidote to the cynicism and fear and hatred that I feel is in the air.” All that said, a “The Shape of Water” vibrator went viral.

Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer in the film THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer in “The Shape of Water”

Del Toro gave up his salary to bump the budget closer to the $20 million he needed. It was the toughest shoot of his life, that included shooting dry for wet, elaborately detailed period sets, and careening crane shots (one blew over in the wind) as well as an out-of-control stunt car that rammed toward the filmmakers in the video village. Inspired by Douglas Sirk and Vincent Minnelli, Del Toro shot the film like a musical, he said, “like they are going to break into song at any moment. I’m interested in the poetic fairy tale aspect and beauty of it, not scares. There’s not a single static shot.”

Spencer credits Del Toro for putting the spotlight on outsiders. “He is a Latin man, he is an ‘other,'” she said. “At the center of his story he puts disenfranchised people who would usually be invisible.”

Likely wins: Picture, Director, Production Design, Score. Count on Del Toro to join his fellow Mexicans A.G. Inarritu and Alfonso Cuaron in the ranks of Best Directors.

Long shots: Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Bottom Line: This inclusionary fable about lonely outsiders who find love is the contender with gravitas that ticks all the boxes in terms of equal male-female appeal plus scale and scope and support from both crafts and actors. That said, no fantasy has won Best Picture since “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.”

Marcus Henderson, Betty Gabriel, Jordan Peele. Marcus Henderson, from left, and Betty Gabriel pose with Jordan Peele and his medallion honoring a nomination for outstanding directorial achievement in a feature film for "Get Out" at the 70th annual Directors Guild of America Awards at The Beverly Hilton hotel, in Beverly Hills, Calif70th Annual DGA Awards - Press Room, Beverly Hills, USA - 03 Feb 2018

“Get Out” actors Marcus Henderson and Betty Gabriel with their writer-director, Jordan Peele, at the DGA Awards

Piz/Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock

“Get Out” (Universal, Metascore: 84)

Awards: New York Film Critics Best First Film, National Society of Film Critics Best Actor, Screenplay, BAFTA Rising Star, Critics Choice Original Screenplay, DGA Best First-Time Feature, and WGA Best Original Screenplay.

Rookie writer-director Jordan Peele’s low-budget February horror B-movie starring British import Daniel Kaluuya has risen well beyond its genre roots. Peele leaned into the horror classics that brought Grand Guignol wit to their dark themes: “Rosemary’s Baby,” “The Stepford Wives,” and “Scream.”

Universal positioned “Get Out” ($255 million worldwide) as a crossover movie with deeper thoughts on its mind, and Peele won support from every guild in which he is a member: SAG, Producers, Writers, and Directors.

One reason: Peele’s clearly the auteur behind this original movie, which took years to get made on a $4.5 million budget. Peele carefully worked his way through New York children’s theater and puppetry at Sarah Lawrence to improv and Mad TV, adding producing and writing to his skill sets.

The 2007 writers’ strike helped him remember that he’d always wanted to be a film director. “The only way for me to make a movie was to write something so good they’d let me make it,” he told IndieWire. “I started many projects, but didn’t know ‘Get Out’ would be the one that would come to fruition.”

Peele laid the groundwork by producing, writing, and acting in multiple sketches on Comedy Central’s “Key & Peele” that pulled humor out of racism. He learned, over and over, how to creatively break beyond limitations and play an audience. “I have, in my marrow, years of improv comedy and sketch,” he said. “I want to get everybody in the crowd. The movie fails if everyone doesn’t get it.”

That’s the secret of “Get Out”: from the unsettling opening frames accompanied by a series of warning music cues (“Run rabbit run!”), Peele seduces, subverts and manipulates audience expectations — as the masters Alfred Hitchcock, John Carpenter, and Stanley Kubrick did before him.

And he uses camera moves to build dread. “The Steadicam has this ghostly quality,” he said. “It feels like something’s watching you, it’s not human, it doesn’t move the way we move. We used it to signify that feeling on the back of your neck when the hairs stand up, of being watched. The audience gets this anticipatory feeling of, ‘I don’t know, something’s coming!'”

Peele knows how to work over the viewer. “Audiences don’t like things they can predict and get ahead of,” he said. “If you can make them think you’re going one way and use momentum against them, they snap into respect: ‘Oh, OK.’ Audiences don’t like to feel talked down to, they like to feel as smart as they are. I try to give them opportunities to figure out what’s going on. I want the audience to feel taken care of as far as the release and relief moments. This is a tense movie, especially the first time, it’s uncomfortable. You need to pay the audience with some fun.”

Finally, “Get Out” is an admonition and warning, but it’s also what Peele wants the audience to scream at his frightened everyman hero. “I wanted to address the type of audience that yells at horror movies,” he said, “and black audiences, where we don’t get the representation, we don’t get people who move through movies with our sensibilities and spidey sense.”

Any low-budget horror film, with limited, isolated locations, is difficult to write. “As soon as you get to the horror, any character in their right mind would get out of the space,” said Peele. “You have to figure out a web and tapestry to make us believe in and identify with the characters. It’s hard to get frustrated with a horror movie if the characters are doing what I would do.”

The rule Peele broke: “You don’t have a movie about race without a white savior,” he said. “Every movie about race has to have one good white person, them’s the rules. It’s an olive branch to white people: ‘This movie isn’t hating on you.’ You can’t have the last good white character [Allison Williams’ Rose] be evil. That’s why white people appreciate the movie: We’re presuming you are the smart guy in the lead role working through the situation in the same way you would. It’s not divisive, it’s an inclusive film in which white people happen to be evil.”

“Get Out”

Credit producer Jason Blum (who was nominated in 2015 for “Whiplash”) for making sure Peele rejiggered a more satisfying upbeat ending, rather than send his beleaguered hero to jail.

While the overall Academy tends to be myopic and snobby about horror fare, the writers and directors do like to champion emerging talent, from Orson Welles (“Citizen Kane”) and John Singleton (“Boyz N the Hood”) to Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”). Of course, the exception to prove all rules, 1991’s horror flick “The Silence of the Lambs,” nabbed five Oscars including Best Picture, Director Jonathan Demme, Screenplay Ted Tally, Actor Anthony Hopkins, and Actress Jodie Foster.

With four Oscar nods — none of them technical — Peele is most likely to prevail over friendly rival Gerwig, as he did at the Writers Guild, because of the sheer auteur originality of his expectation-subverting achievement. (He says he wrote about 40 drafts.) Who else could have pulled this off?

Likely win: Original Screenplay.

Long-shot wins: Picture, Director, Actor.

Bottom line: If anything can unseat “The Shape of Water” for Best Picture, with the hard-to-gauge preferential ballot and an expanded younger and more diverse Academy membership, it’s this timely racial thriller, started during the Obama administration and completed in the age of Trump. This could be the zeitgeist play.

“It’s not a coincidence that timing worked out,” said Peele. “That vacuum of understanding of how to talk about race during the Obama years ebbed in one direction. Now what we see in ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Get Out’ is all the untapped voices getting budgets and marketing dollars. The industry is representing, but on the other side, we have a scary state of politics.”